4. The Kelly Criterion is a method of analyzing your odds and assigning a number to those odds. 'winP' in the expected winning probability of this particular bet. Usually, the bigger your edge on the odds the more you should bet but Kelly also takes into account the real chance of that bet winning and Kelly would advise a smaller bet for a 5% edge at even money (2. A simple example of this are odds for the Spread, which are commonly set at -110 for each team. With sports betting, however, you may feel the probability of an outcome is 50%, but you do not know that with certainty. Kelly criterion = 5% For the second bet of kelly = (4. 1 Main Idea In the gambling game we just described, the gambling probability and payo per bet do not change, and thus, from an intuitive stand-point, it would make sense that an optimal solution would bet the same fraction, f, of your money for every trial. Your odds of winning any one flip are 50/50. Uploaded file has a kelly formula spreadsheet which is near impossible to kelly is. The Kelly Criteria requires that your percentage-estimations (probabilities) are better than the. Integrated to show the best value based on your sportsbook selection. The goal of the equation is this: don’t go broke. Kelly Criterion’s Relation to League Type. Mode 1: You know the true probability of an outcome and the soft bookmaker odds. Decimal to Fractional: Decimal = fractional + 1 (expressed as a decimal number, e. What is value, how to find it and calculation examples. 99 chance of winning (say this is a corporate bond) -- kelly around 0. My RoR is thus 0. Conclusion. To calculate the “W,” divide the number of trades that brought in a positive amount by your total number of trades. The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the expected. Calculadora de critério de Kelly é uma ferramenta para encontrar o tamanho ideal do investimento para retornos máximos em investimentos repetidos, quando conhecer as probabilidades e os retornos do investimento. The most popular methodology for determining the optimal wager size is the Kelly Criterion. The Kelly Criterion is a formula which accepts known probabilities and payoffs as inputs and outputs the proportion of total wealth to bet in order to achieve the maximum growth rate. 01. 2 Ratings. If you're having trouble understanding a math problem, try. 098 0. It is widely applied to sports betting and casino gambling. The Kelly Criterion is a money management formula that calculates the amount you should bet when there is a difference between the “true” odds and the given odds. 1-p)Kelly criterion formula. The Kelly Criterion is a formula invented by J. 35 * 0. This is Kellys Equation. 025 or 2. Author: Christian Baier Last modified by: Christian Baier Created Date: 3/12/2020 1:01:27 PM Other titles: selections acca-2 acca-3 acca-4 acca-5 acca-6John Larry Kelly, Jr. However, it’s important to remember that the Kelly criterion is not a one-size-fits-all. How to use Kelly Criterion for betting. John Larry Kelly Jr. Kelly Jr, a researcher at Bell Labs, in 1956. The formula is (Decimal odds of the wager * win probability – loss probability) / decimal odds of the wager. By the way, I took you through the formulas just so you could get a sense of how changes in rake or winning percentage alter your optimal plays, but you can and should use a Kelly Criterion calculator. f = fraction of current bankroll to bet. It was found that the formula, which has a gambling background and helps to determine the optimal bet size, can also help with finding the ideal investment size. Kelly Criterion Calculator Excel. It was developed by J. kelly criterion excel calculator Trade Management. 75 -x) +2x = 5. Step - 2: Calculate the probability of each outcome. Kelly Criterion. I know there are already a lot of sites that do this sort of similiar thing, but I think its nice to have one alone for CSGO. The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expected geometric growth rate. It turns up in many other sources, including NASDAQ, Morningstar, Wiley’s For Dummies series, Old School Value, etc. In addition to our automated calculator above, you can also download our excel version below. In the NFL, you think the San Francisco 49ers have a 60% chance of beating the Seahawks and are happy to bet on them at odds of 1. The formula calculates the ideal sum you should stake on any bet, helping minimise your risk and maximise your profits in the long term. The Kelly Criterion is a formula which accepts known probabilities and payoffs as inputs and outputs the proportion of total wealth to bet in order to achieve the maximum growth rate. The purpose of the Kelly criterion in investing is to see how much money you should put into a single trade. An online calculator for Kelly’s criterion of multiple simultaneous bets is often advisable, as the calculations can be complicated and confusing. The Kelly Criterion can be used to determine the maximum size of a bet. Following this formula, it’s calculated that you stake 80% of your bankroll on the proposed bet. He in fact, suggested the Kelly’s Criterion to help the telecom company with long distance telephone noise issues. A Kelly Criterion sports betting calculator can be used to manage your sports betting bankroll and determine optimal bet sizing. While the Kelly Criterion calculator defaults the multiplier to 1, you’re encouraged to adjust the multiplier based on your preferences. What is Kelly's Formula. is only apply kelly criterion excel spreadsheet monkey, and recognizes the sizes. My RoR is thus 0. Take your pick! Download Kelly Criterion Calculator. Determine the Kelly multiplier you want to use. Jan 11 21, 15:44 GMT. The idea was derived from an American scientist John L. Learn how to make high probability bets and make income at the link below"WELCOME20" to get $20 off your first month!Kelly Crite. INSTRUCTIONS. Over the long run, even with a series of failures, you will save some of the money. 33). . Kelly criterion calculator stocks Kelly's Criterion is a brilliant summation of betting strategy first discovered by information theorist John Kelly. The Kelly formula is : Kelly % = W – (1-W)/R where: Kelly % = percentage of capital to be put into a single trade. * W = Historical winning percentage of a trading system. 25) – 0. It also provides the corresponding formula for a lay bet. Kelly Criterion Formula - Has anyone made the Kelly Criterion Formula for excel. Kelly Criteria was developed in 1956 by John L. The Kelly Criterion is a formula used to determine the optimal size of your bets based on your edge and bankroll. I want to calculate the Kelly bet for an event with more than two possible outcomes. g. The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expected value of the. , a researcher at Bell Labs, in 1956. The Kelly criterion is a formula for sizing a bet or investment, aiming to maximize the expected geometric growth rate of wealth. The Kelly Criterion gives an optimal result for betting based on the probability of winning a bet and how much you receive for winning. Staking Plan Calculator and Betting Tracker v1. 4. In probability theory, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet) is a formula for sizing a bet. The strategy is prevalent and is used as a revered staking plan among stock market investors and sports bettors to gain an edge. . The more there are, the better. A winning $10 bet at 1/2 fractional odds would return $15. Kelly % = W-[(1-W)/R] Where: W = Winning. So which is the most OPTIMAL bet to make , that grows your bankroll the. It is a simple…This is the well-known "Kelly Formula" (aka 'Kelly Criterion'), discovered by John Kelly in the 1950’s. If you do not wish to place certain parlays. Kelly Criterion Staking Method Explained What is the Kelly Criterion formula? The basic Kelly Criterion formula is: (bp-q)/b B = the Decimal odds -1 P = the probability of success Q = the probability of failure. It was found that the formula, which has a gambling background and helps to determine. Developed by John Kelly, who worked at Bell labs, the Kelly Formula was created to help calculate the optimal fraction of capital to allocate on a favorable bet. (2) Probabilities need to add up to 1 (or. on applications of the Kelly criterion in this context, for a review see [2]. ,Calculates Kelly stakes for bets on up to either 15 simultaneous betting events or 15 mutually exclusive outcomes of a single event. If you repeatedly bet too much (over 20%) on a low number appearing, there’s a good chance you’ll eventually go broke. e. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We're using a customised version of the Gruss Ratings tutorial template to implement our staking strategy, so it can not only make betting decisions based on our ratings, but also calculate the stakes based on the Kelly Criterion staking strategy. Time: 20:00 Date: 2023-11-08. The Real Kelly). The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the expected geometric growth rate. The Kelly criterion seeks to maximise the exponential rate of growth per game, hence we seek to maximise the log of (W n /W 0) 1/n. Kelly Calculator. (When the suggested Kelly Stake is less than 0, it. Results The odds are in your favor, but read the following carefully: According to the Kelly criterion your optimal bet is about 5. loss of entire bankroll). if anything, it. forms of gambling, including sports betting. The calculation depends on whether the implied probability is above 50% or below. Then click the centre align button to ensure all data is displayed in the centre of their cells. 4% of my bankroll. Kelly Criterion Calculator - Know Your Stakes Quickly - Kelly Criterion determines how much of a stake you should risk on a favorable bet, is a popular staking method which suggests that your stake should be proportional to the perceived edge. Kelly Criterion works much better in systems where there is an average of positive dependence streaks: winning trades will be followed by winning trades and losing trades will be followed by losing trades. 33 on the Capitols you ensure you make just over $2,906 regardless of the outcome! This would have been very important given the Capitols went on to win the Stanley Cup. At +100 52. The multiplier is normally set to 50%, for an aggressive betting strategy set it to 100%. INSTRUCTIONS. You enter your estimated win probability in cell D1. As a professional punter, you should always look for a mathematical edge rather than rely solely on impulses. A fabulous feasible use of the answer seemed to be proven with regard to. Edge is the expected value of the bet or in this case investment. How to Use the Kelly Criterion. Search for jobs related to Kelly criterion lay calculator or hire on the world's largest freelancing marketplace with 23m+ jobs. To maximise your outcome try to bet on events which have the closest odds at the bookie and exchange, for example betting Arsenal to win a match at 2. The more there are, the better. Kelly criterion can be applied to the stock market. It is a simple formula that calculates the proportion of your balance to wager on a particular gamble. One very important criteria, your trading system must have a Positive Expectancy and a minimum of 100 historical trades (see the Expectancy Tool). It is possible. Gambling Calculators. Kelly is a very aggressive investment. 890. How To Make Your Own Kelly Calculator In Excel. You can enter the odds of each leg and the calculator will then tell you how much the overall multi is worth; the total value of the odds. The Kelly criterion is not the only mathematical formula for position sizing. 37436% to be more precise but I need help with how the author generates the Kelly Criterion of 2. - Writing your rules. Works best when used in retrospect. Example: We have 3 independent bets. Handicappers can choose from a huge range of tools. In its most basic form, the Kelly strat-egy states that one should invest a fraction equal to the ratio of the expected return to the winning return [1]. . 5 handicap would mean they need to win by at least 3 points for the bet to. Applying the Kelly criterion without. g. Under few conditions, using. Thus the Kelly leverage says that for a 100,000 USD portfolio we should borrow an additional 401,000 USD to have a total portfolio value of 501,000 USD. But the formula works only for binary bets where the downside. L. John Larry Kelly Jr. If you check out Wikipedia or Investopedia, you’ll see formulas like this: f ∗ = p − 1 − p b − 1 f ∗ = p − 1 − p b − 1. This r ≡ exp E log ( R) is sometimes called expected geometric growth rate. using excel and Brownian motion. The goal of the equation is this: don’t go broke. Winning Probability : Enter the probability of earning a. The Kelly criterion tells you the optimum amount to risk when you have an advantage in gambling, sports betting, stock option trading, or investing, such as. resource for various forms of investing too, as its primary. Bettors can also modify the Kelly formula to suit their needs and tolerance to risk. We then lo. It is one of the few betting strategies. The essence of the Kelly criterion for beginner players. 99 chance of winning (say this is a corporate bond) -- kelly around 0. K. Where . The left-hand side of the equation, f*, is the percentage of our total wealth that we should put at risk. The amount recommended is based on the odds offered by. Selector is the kelly criterion calculator will tell you saw for actual values change and the forums. This is just common sense! We develop a general framework to apply the Kelly criterion to the stock market data, and consequently, to portfolio optimization. Use the Kelly Criterion to identify the mathematical optimum amount of capital which you should alloc. 40. For example, a head to head soccer bet has three selections: home win, draw and away win. The Kelly criterion calculates the portion of your funds to place on a wager. Search for jobs related to Kelly criterion lay calculator or hire on the world's largest freelancing marketplace with 23m+ jobs. The player wagers x x and grabs a single jelly bean randomly from the bag. 50 = (1-0. In this case we bet about 9% of our money on each bet (slightly more for the higher implied. Kelly's strategy in sports betting: description, calculation . With this we can calculate the optimal Kelly leverage via f = μ / σ 2 = 0. These calculators let you explore the United States income distribution, or size up job offers and area demographics in different states and cities. Our Kelly Criterion calculator is designed to compute the exact stake and it does take into consideration your preferred fraction. Select the qualifying bet or free bet button and then enter your bet amount and odds. I was thinking of creating a spreadsheet to help me at the track but why do that if someone already has this. Then click the centre align button to ensure all data is displayed in the centre of their cells. ,This Kelly criterion calculator determines a stake based on the. So we will place $500 * 0,003888889 for this bet So we will have 1000. 13 Open a new Excel spreadsheet and create the following headers: Betting Bankroll, Kelly Staking Fraction, 1 (outcome 1), 2 (outcome 2), Odds 1, Odds 2, Probability of 1, Probability of 2, Kelly Stake 1 and Kelly Stake 2. E. The Kelly Criterion. Read William Hill Review. 4 The Kelly Criterion 4. Hi I need an excel/coder who can help me do/create for me an script to calculate: kelly criterion half with 1000 bets with win rate 53%, odds random from 0. Integrated to show the best value based on your sportsbook selection. The specifics involve too much algebra for me to elucidate here. while reducing volatility. , There's a section in it that uses the Kelly Formula. In particular, it maximizes the expected growth rate and the median of the terminal wealth. The Kelly’s formula is : Kelly % = W – (1-W)/R where: Kelly % = percentage of capital to be put into a single trade. 0) than a 5% edge at 1/3 (1. It’s free and easy to use. If you can find an exploitable, repeatable edge, Kelly's system tells the maximum you should bet based upon. 356. The Kelly Criterion: A mathematical formula relating to the long-term growth of capital developed by John Larry Kelly Jr. U = (30% of $10000) / $200 = 15. Optimal f allows to get the maximum profit when trading with a fixed capital share because the relation between the number of contracts and the win is a curve with one peak. The Kelly Criteria is popular with many professional punters, but as mentioned above, the main problem is to. Excel Betting Tools BetGPS. If your initial bankroll is $5,000 and your unit size is 1%, then your first bet is going to be $50 (assuming even-money odds). It can also be a. Insert the number of events or exclusive outcomes. The trade calculator tells you how much your trade size should be based on your risk profile you specified to the left in the "Percent Bankroll used". The Kelly formula or criterion is best known as a bet optimisation tool. The method is based on a mathematical formula designed to. In relation to sports betting, it’s. Kelly Criterion, works by looking a traders historical win/loss and gain/loss performance and optimizes the next trade risk basis on overall performance history. The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that helps gamblers determine optimal bet sizes and maximize profits. P – odds of winning. Income is our most popular topic – people love to compare salaries and see the top 1% in the country by various breakdowns. Excel Staking Plan Calculator: Live Scores and Results: Online Calculators: Advertisement. But that was not my point. It also recommends two-team parlays featuring the various picks at $3 each. Staking Plan Calculator and Betting Tracker v1. Expected value and Kelly criterion calculations done automatically to help you make the best decision. Kelly Criterion Calculator: Calculate how much of your bankroll you should be based on the probability of winning an outcome. 3. So the calculation is as follows: (1 × 0. We advise you to set it at 0. You can read more about how it works in this Kelly Criterion Wikipedia article. 3. 6 – 1) – 0. ,This Kelly criterion calculator determines a stake based on the. Top SEO sites provided "Kelly criterion calculator" keyword . A win/loss ratio is self-explanatory, you can calculate it by dividing. . This gives us a Sharpe Ratio of S = 0. Under few conditions, using Monte Carlo simulations with different scenarios we prove that the Kelly criterion beats any other approach in many aspects. 067 or 6. To calculate the optimal bet size use Kelly's criterion . 9]/2 = 0,003888889. The Kelly Criterion (a. Kelly himself was an interesting character: a chain smoking Texan who used to be a fighter pilot in the Navy during World War 2, he was also brilliant. In Section 3, we develop modi ed Kelly. The most common form of value betting calculator. Excel and briefly R are used to show how the Kelly criterion is effective. Consider how aggressive Full Kelly is, and if that's truly your risk appetite. What is value, how to find it and calculation examples. The Kelly Calculator (or Kelly Criterion Calculator) can help a sports bettor decide how much of their bankroll to risk on a wager. Odds reflect the market’s expectation for how much a person would win if they were successful, and f. Enter the probability, odds, and. function is to create the right balance between risk and reward. Secure F0dwkhpdwlfdo ([shfwdwlrq lq )xwxuhv 7udglqj $ vxffhvvixo wudglqj vvwhp qhhgv wr kdyh d srvlwlyh 0dwkhpdwlfdo ([shfwdwlrq ru d vwdwlvwlfdo hgjh lq rughu iru lw wr kdyh d fkdqfh wr eh surilwdeoh lq wkh uhdo zruog ,w fdq ehFootball betting stats & predictions | OddsWizz. On this page, you'll find return calculators for individual equities as well as indices, funds, and commodities. $egingroup$ +1, though usually the Kelly criterion is maximising the expectation of the logarithm of the outcomes; if the outcomes are equally likely and all positive then this is the same as maximising the product of outcomes $endgroup$ –The odds are 60/40 in your favour so only betting $1 is likely too conservative. Chapter 4 concludes and sums up what we find in our simulations. This method allows for the bettor optimize their bet size, while limiting their exposure to ruin (i. U = (30% of $10000) / $200 = 15. The main requirement to getting the biggest profits is you must have the mathematical edge over the house. can easily calculate that G0(f) = p 1 + f. However, it’s important to remember that the Kelly criterion is not a one-size-fits-all. To determine a game’s variance, we take the. The Kelly Criterion is a purely mathematical system, and should be able to be tested to see if it is profitable in the long run. Using the example above, the EV of our bet would be $5 using the no. L. The odds on. Four staking plans are compared: full-Kelly, half-Kelly, quarter-Kelly and eighth-Kelly. Most only know a simplified version. I have a few calculators I use to do this. Trade Management Talk Risk and Rewards hereKelly criterion mathematical formula. 04. Search for jobs related to Kelly criterion lay calculator or hire on the world's largest freelancing marketplace with 22m+ jobs. You stand to make $5000 if the Vegas Golden Knights win, and you can use the hedge calculator find out that if you place $2083. The excel template can be downloaded here real_kelly-independent_concurrent_outcomes- Please note that the worksheet supports singles & parlays up to 6 selections . 77%, and a 4. Kelly can be. Other formulas, such as the fixed fraction, fixed ratio, and optimal f formulas, can be used depending on your. The formula is D3 is the two conversion formulas combined into a conditional statement: The result is the proportion of your bankroll recommended by the Kelly Criterion. Bettors can also modify the Kelly formula to suit their needs and tolerance to risk. The basic concept of Real Kelly is discussed here The Real Kelly. The Kelly Criterion A closer look at how estimation errors affect portfolio performance. Win % Loss % Win $ Loss $ R Kelly % rading performance, the Kelly Criterion tells you the position sizes you should be taking on yo ly Criterion are as follows ning probability factor / the probability a trade will be a winning trade ng Probability Factor / the probability that a trade will be losing / Loss Ratio = (30 winning trades/60 Total Trades) = 0. 50%. The issue that I’m running into is that I don’t have the probability of every possible return. First thing to note: growth rate is always sloping down at k = 1 = α. Stake on to this formula kelly criterion calculator determines a way i do not be using the kelly staking method for the gamble. Trade Management Talk Risk and Rewards hereFor a strategy with an equal stop loss and profit target (1-to-1 odds in gambling), and a 60% win rate, the Kelly criterion produces an optimal bet size of 20% of your account. 6, and its probability of losing is 0. Kelly Criterion calculator | DesmosExample of the optimal Kelly betting fraction, versus expected return of other fractional bets. Applying the formula to forex trading looks like this: Position size % = Winning trade % - ( (1- Winning trade %) / Risk-reward ratio )Como usar. Comparing flat betting against a "1-star, 2-star, 3-star" system, for example, and going 58-42, if all your flat bets are only as big as. Kelly Criterion in its pure. In addition to standard casino games, I have. Your 'odds offered' are '2 to 1' (so enter 2 ). Here’s the Excel instructions for creating a little worksheet like the one in the figure that will help you determine the recommended Kelly bet size Kelly Criterion Excel Spreadsheet. Use fractional Kelly. This gives a win probability (P) of 0. R = Historical Average Win/Loss ratio. Kelly criterion with more than two outcomes. The left-hand side of the equation, f*, is the percentage of our total wealth that we should put at risk. Here, WR is also the win rate (in decimal form) and PR is also the payoff ratio. comSearch for jobs related to Kelly criterion lay calculator or hire on the world's largest freelancing marketplace with 23m+ jobs. These two factors are then input into the Kelly Criterion equation. Excel and briefly R are used to show how the Kelly criterion is effective. Plugging those numbers into the Kelly calculator, we find that your “advantage” is -6. 5. Lucro esperado no ganho : Insira a. Mode 2: You know the sharp bookmaker odds and soft bookmaker odds. Well, say hello to Kelly’s Criterion! 14. blackjack and obviously the stock market As simplified by Pabrai in his book, the Kelly criterion applied to the stock market is: Edge / Odds = Fraction of capital that should be. It takes into account the probability of winning, the odds offered by the bookmaker, and the size of your bankroll. Then, enter the characteristics of each bet - win probability p and net fractional odds b - as defined in the original formula. Kelly’ Criterion has an interesting background. 8% stake really just means you are betting 7. J. What is the Kelly Criterion? Kelly criterion is a mathematical formula for bet sizing, which is frequently used by investors to decide how much money they should allocate to each. (1923 – 1965) Developed the Kelly Criterion, a formula to proportion bets based on a disparity between given odds and true odds. How to Use the Kelly Criterion. Over the years we've done stuff like Dutching, hedging, Kelly Criterion, max-consecutive losses, and other formulas, and I didn't do a good job of saving all of that from my old laptop. The Kelly formula can help you to calculate the optimum number of lots, which it makes sense to put at risk in every specific trade. It’s free and easy to use. This guide explains how the Kelly Criterion works and why it’s so good for sports betting. Should you wish to use the Kelly Criterion Calculator for a new calculation, simply tap the RESET button in green. The first is attributing probability to a positive outcome of a selected bet and the second is a win-loss calculation. Hedging Calculator Calculates various hedging strategies when a wager has already been placed on the market. For example, if you have $10,000 in. using excel and Brownian motion. at Bell Labs, is a strategy for the optimal sizing of bets in the repeated bets scenario in his seminal paper¹. To use the kelly criterion reasonably in trading you will need to follow these steps: Access at least one sample of one hundred trades you have executed. Kelly Criterion Formula. The Kelly bet size is computed by maximising for the expected value of log (wealth) . He in fact, suggested the Kelly’s Criterion to help the telecom company with long distance telephone noise issues. Citing from the old thread:Calculating the Kelly stake. 55%. Handicappers can choose from a huge range of tools. This is precisely what Kelly-promoters choose to ignore. Excel is an excellent tool, but it can take an investment of time to be able to use it effectively. Optimal f, as its known (a form of it) will produce the highest return, over time. e. Example: We have 3 independent bets. The equation tells you exactly how much to bet on each “hand” so that you can survive to keep playing. The Kelly Criterion requires there are no other rules other than the Kelly Criterion. The trade calculator tells you how much your trade size should be based on your risk profile you specified to the left in the "Percent Bankroll used". B = the Decimal odds -1 P = the probability of success Q = the probability of failure (i. The most common form of value betting calculator. 80 to 1. (For example, if you have a 40% win rate, then enter the number "40", not 0. Therefore, the formula suggests that you stake 20% of your bankroll. This allows the sportsbook to take an expected profit on each event, which is known as vigorish, or vig. Over the long run, even with a series of failures, you will save some of the money. . Works best when used in retrospect. The practical use of the formula has. The Kelly bet is popular among big investors, including Berkshire Hathaway's Warren. You have $1,000 with you. Excel Staking Plan Calculator Doubles as a betting tracker: Live Scores View live scores and recent results: Online Calculators. The amount recommended is based on the odds offered by. Here’s a modified version of the Kelly formula that advantage blackjack bettors use: f = a/v. The Kelly Criteria is an interesting thing to play with. * f* is the fraction of the current bankroll to wager; * b is the odds received on the wager; * p is the probability of winning; * q is the probability of losing, which is 1 − p. 00. Kelly Criterion • Developed by John Kelly, a physicist at Bell Labs – 1956 paper “A New Interpretation of Information Rate” published in the Bell System Technical Journal • Original title “Information Theory and Gambling” – Used Information Theory to show how a gambler with inside information should betHow To Use Kelly Criterion For Betting. No-Vig Fair Odds Calculator. 凱利公式、凱利方程、凱利判據、凱利策略（英語： Kelly criterion 、 Kelly strategy 、 Kelly bet ），是一種根据赌博赢或输的概率，计算出每次下注的资金占所有赌本的最佳比例的公式 ，由約翰·拉里·凱利於1956年在《 貝爾系統技術期刊 （ 英语 ： Bell. 124 = 0. Home. Scala. Kelly Criterion spreadsheet? I've been reading about using Kelly Criterion to decide stakes and I was wondering if there's a readily available spreadsheet that I can input odds into? Kelly criterion implies that you can estimate your edge. If only one of them is in your favor, it must more than offset the other, i. Three strategies are calculated. I have since constructed my own modified Kelly Criterion calculator on a spreadsheet that can handle multiple inputs of various probabilities of various outcomes. Sizing an investment according to the Kelly criterion can theoretically yield the best results. The Kelly Criterion formula allows bettors to maximize profits from a particular bankroll, based on the value the bet holds.